The Usual Suspects

The NCAA Women's College Cup finalists have been set, and as I and undoubtedly many others predicted, all four number one seeds are still standing.

One semifinal is UCLA - UNC and I have to go with UNC simply because UNC has no weaknesses, while UCLA is a little suspect in the back, and has a bit of a propensity to pass the ball to the other team in their own half. Throw in the fact that UNC is essentially playing at home means we are looking at a 2-1 result in UNC's favor.

The other semi is Stanford - Notre Dame. Notre Dame is good, as I have said. But I have a good feeling about this one in Stanford's favor. Based on what I have seen, Notre Dame is not as technically sophisticated as Stanford. I think Stanford has the edge in terms of team speed. I also wonder about the conditioning of some of the UND players, as the team seems to visibly tire 10 minutes or so before the end of each half.

Stanford needs to fly from the get-go, play fast and incisively, maintain possession, and stretch the field. All three strikers need to get the ball in or near the box and run at people. Midfielders, that means they need service and that means you. All SU's attackers need to take a page from Kelley O'Hara's book and take shots on the volley, because at this level you don't always have time to trap, set, and shoot. I say let 'er rip. All of Stanford's strikers and a-mids need to be menacing. They need to run at people, they need to shoot. Pressure the UND backline and I think they will eventually tire and break. Defensively, Stanford needs to mark the UND strikers out of the match, deny their CAM the ball, and keep things wide.

If Stanford plays to Stanford's strengths, I believe Stanford will win this match.

MLS Cup Recap

I DVR'd the MLS Cup and got up at midnight Monday morning and watched it.

All in all it was a pretty good game. But from a presentation standpoint I have to say two things: First, Alexi Lalas in the studio does not work. When he shotgunned a can of Red Bull and proceeded to spill half of it all over his suit that was it for me. He had even less substantive to say that Julie Foudy, and that is saying something. He has to go.

Also, since the game was between the New York and Columbus clubs and was held in Carson California, there were too many visible empty seats. MLS simply must stop this "Championship Game Must Be Held at a Neutral Site" nonsense. This game should have been played in Columbus in a packed, loud stadium. That is how you market a soccer league.

The goals were nice. The first was good, but not great. Moreno slows his marker by faking middle, then turns on the jets and beats him into the box, where 'keeper Cepero badly overcomitted to the near post and gets beaten by a well-placed far post bid.

The equaliser by Wolniec was quality. Dane Richards torches three defenders (again) and puts a sweet through-ball to Wolniec which he toes home. That was some nice soccer.

The third goal was great, a thing of beauty, instigated by the dazzling Guillermo Barros Schelotto, who plays on a higher plane than almost everyone else in the league. That chip was just sheer greatness straight from the crucible that is the highest levels of Argentine club soccer. Freddy Hejduk, who is not to be confused with the GEICO caveman, simply had to run under it and gently head over the keeper.

There was little doubt in my mind Columbus would win this game. They are clearly the best side in MLS right now. A BigSoccer analyst and Columbus partisan said Columbus played some of the most elegant soccer ever seen in MLS. Well, I'll give him a pass. Columbus played very well. They won, and by and large they won in workmanlike fashion. If they add more players of Schelotto's quality to their roster, then maybe we can start talking about soccer elegance. But that is for another day. Congrats to the Crew, and here's to hoping now they can start getting more than 13,000 people to show up at their home games.

NCAA WCC: The Quarters

In the Notre Dame Bracket, as I thought, we are looking at ND vs. FSU. ND has not scored as much as I thought they would enroute to this point. Neither has FSU. FSU is a quality side, no doubt, but ND just has too many weapons. They just find a way to win, and I think they will against FSU. So, from this bracket, it is UND to the Final Four.

Also, as I predicted, we have a Quarters matchup between Stanford and Portland. Portland knows how to play soccer. Stanford knows how to play soccer, too, and they are at home. Make no mistake, Portland is entirely capable of winning this game, but I like Stanford at home. I am gonna go with 2-1 Stanford with goals from Lindsay Taylor and Kelley O'Hara. Stanford rolls on to the Final Four.

Over in the UCLA bracket, I thought it would be UCLA-UVA, but it is UCLA-Duke. UCLA wins 2-0 with goals in each half to go to the Final Four.

And then we have the UNC bracket. I thought it would be UNC-UF, but I was wrong about UF and UNC's next victim is Texas A&M. As they say in New York, fuhgeddaboudit, UNC wins 3-0 and clears their bench in the second half. UNC goes to the Final Four. All in a day's work for them.

Any one of my predicted Final Four is entirely capable of winning it all. UNC is essentially playing at home, which is not good for the other three teams. But, lets get there first.

Stanford Through to Next Round

Stanford, by means of a hard fough 1-0 scoreline over visiting Rutgers, is through to the round of 8. I knew this would be a tough match, and it was. Stanford maintained possession but Rutgers, who I knew would defend like all-get-out, kept a clean sheet until Stanford's biggest big-time player, Kelley O'Hara, does what big-time players do and that is put the ball in the back of the net and win the game with 4:46 remaining.

An analyst on bigsoccer rated Rutgers at something like 35th based on a theoretical relative strength statistics algorithm. This game is a prime example of why, come tournament time, you throw all that out and let the players play the game. My relative strength calcuation on the night came out at the end with Stanford #1, and Rutgers #2. That is the ranking that goes into the brackets, which show Stanford going to the next round to a probable matchup against Portland.

WCC 2008 - My Brackets

Posted herewith are my picks for the 2008 Womens College Cup. Any one of my projected final four are entirely capable of winning this thing. A few others are, as well.

Notre Dame is really, really good. They are good tactically. They have skilled, fast players. But they can also get after you and grind the daylights out of you. They can finesse you and score goals, or they can ram the ball down your throat and score goals.

UCLA is UCLA. They are fast, and thy are tall. They play some good soccer despite some occasional sloppy passing. You better play fast against these folks or you will be toast.

UNC is the perennial powerhouse. For them, winning the College Cup equals a successful season, anything else is a failure. They have US National teamers who you'd better contain or you will be in a hole, futilely chasing the game.

Stanford is probably the best pure soccer-side in the entire tournament. They have loads of flamboyant firepower up front. Top to bottom they have the best strikers in the country. Their a-mids can kill you, too.


Notre Dame Bracket
First Round Winners/2nd Round Matchups

UND-MSU; Minn-Col; BC-NEastern; Auburn-FSU

3rd Round

UND-Col; BC-FSU

Quarters

UND-FSU

Stanford Bracket
1st Round Winners/2nd Round Matchups

UP-Wash St.; UGA-WFU; OSU-Rutg; Den-Stanford

3rd Round

UP-WFU; Rutgers-Stanford

Quarters

UP-Stanford


UCLA Bracket
First Round Winners/2nd Round Matchups

UCLA-LBS; BYU-USC; Duke-S. Car; WVU-UVA

Third Round

UCLA-USC; Duke-UVA

Quarters

UCLA-UVA

UNC Bracket
1st Round Winners/2nd Round Matchups

UF - Miami; Wash.-Tx A&M; Missouri-Memphis; Charlotte-UNC

3rd Round

UF-Wash.; Missouri - UNC

Quarters

UF-UNC

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FINAL FOUR

UND - Stanford; UCLA - UNC

FINAL

Stanford-UNC

CHAMPION

Stanford

Correction

I said in a previous post that the #1 seeds in the NCAA Womens' tourney would likely go only to conference winners. Further reading has revealed that RPI (a computer strength rating index) is a heavy determiner of the seeding. Stanford was, according to the Pac-10 website, a #1 seed last year even though they did not win the Pac-10.

Seeding isn't everything, anyway. But it is important.

This is Just too much Fun

Los campeones la segunda vez!

Some Good (Old) DC United Stuff

Some fond memories about the most successful and decorated soccer club in the history of the United States.

The first home goal, from 1996.



"Campeones, campeones, Ole! Ole! Ole!"

A Certain Someone

... has offered a tongue-in-cheek list of suggestions to our gridiron fan friends for making their game more appealing to an international audience.

Report from Hoo-Country

We loaded up the van and headed down the road to Charlottesville last Friday night for the tilt between the Maryland and Virginia.

The CR did his best to ruin the match by issuing, well, a Straight Red Hat-Trick. First to go was a Maryland player who was sent of for a cynical tackle that took the man as well as the ball. It merited a warning at most. Then some minutes later came a make-up call against a Virginia midfielder who pushed a Maryland player. Then another Virginia player is sent off for I have no idea what.

All that aside, Maryland was clearly and to a man the better team, and came out on top of the score sheet by a 2-1 margin.

This is the weakest UVA team I have seen in a long time. It seems George Gelnovatch's recruiting results are waning. In recent years you would see players on the roster from all over the country -- top players from soccer hotbeds such as New York, North New Jersey areas, Texas, Florida, and top talent from right here in Virginia. Now the roster is heavily weighted with players from Virginia. Virginia produces many good players, but not many great players. To get a roster full of great plyers, you have to cast a wide net. It seems that net was light going in to this year.

The View from Base Camp

Well, the Stanford Womens Soccer team has made it to base camp.

The problem is, UCLA, by virtue of their 1-0 defeat of Stanford last Friday, arrived there first, thus getting all the best shelters, and have all but secured the most favorable passage to the summit that is the College Cup trophy. UCLA has essentially won the Pac-10, and thus has virtually assured itself of a top seed going in to the NCAAs.

Stanford is still well-positioned, but likely will have to take a steeper path to the rarified air of that same podium; one rife with obstacles such as the ice walls of having to play at altitude, and the crevasses of having to play strong teams in neutral or hostile venues and conditions.

Only if Stanford wins it all will they have established themslves as an elite program. Another crash-out in the lowly second round will cement its status as a bottle-rocket for at least another year.

There was no video of the SU - UCLA match, and the match reports have been very sketchy. But reading between the lines it sounds as if UCLA clogged the midfield with such success that Stanford had no penetration up the middle to speak of, and were marginalized to the flanks, where they won corners but little else. Not only that, but word is Stanford's defenders coughed the ball up repeatedly in their defensive third, which if true makes it a miracle that Stanford did not get shredded for more goals.

A #1 seed in the NCAAs is unlikely for Stanford. The #1 seeds will likely go to major conference winners such as UNC of the ACC, Notre Dame of the Big East, Florida of the SEC, and UCLA of the Pac-10.

All that said, there is not a soccer team in this country that Stanford cannot beat, including UCLA.

From here on out, Stanford needs to remember the lesson from the Philadelphia Flyers and go out and win soccer games.